Wall Street and global stocks were virtually flat on Monday while oil prices gained and the dollar was little changed, as traders looked ahead to corporate earnings, central bank meetings and a key employment report due this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%, to 35,499.78, the S&P 500 was little changed at 4,582.45 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.07%, to 14,326.87.
Apple Inc and Amazon.com both report on Thursday, while other well-known names with results due include Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp and Advanced Micro Devices.
European shares gained modestly after euro zone inflation fell further in July seeing that most measures of underlying price growth also eased. Markets took this as a comforting sign for the European Central Bank (ECB) as it considers ending a brutal string of interest rate hikes.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.12%, heading for a second consecutive monthly gain. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained about 0.1%.
The modest gains came despite China’s manufacturing activity falling for a fourth straight month in July, as demand remained weak at home and abroad, official surveys showed on Monday.
“Markets are treating information with a lot more sensitivity and people are looking into new information with a detailed eye,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
EYES ON THE HORIZON
Economic indicators that investors will be watching this week include the U.S. ISM surveys on manufacturing and services, as well as the July payrolls report.
“Data out this week should remain superficially consistent with the ‘soft landing’ narrative,” Citi market strategists wrote in a note. “But the potential return to upside surprises to job growth would raise questions about whether slowing inflation can coexist with tight labor markets.”
All three main U.S. indexes ended last week higher and appear set to gain this month as signs of cooling inflation and a resilient economy have eased investor sentiment about the economy surviving amid higher rates for longer.
Upbeat quarterly earnings from megacap growth companies including Alphabet and Meta Platforms as well as chipmakers Intel and Lam Research have also boosted investor sentiment.
Almost 30% of the S&P 500 reports results this week. So far earnings have been good enough to see the index extend its rally to 10% since the start of June.
Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s head of global investment strategy, urged caution given the potential for a weaker economy, slower disinflation and narrower corporate profits.
“This year’s impressive equity rally has been driven by strong sentiment, without either the earnings growth or the directional improvement in economic data to justify current market multiples and valuations,” Christopher wrote in a note.
RISING RATES
The Bank of England is widely expected to raise rates by at least a quarter point. Traders cut bets on a continuing rally in the pound by the most since mid-June ahead of the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.
Sterling has surged 24% from a record low of $1.033 against the dollar in September after a disastrous budget, hitting a 15-month high of $1.314 in mid-July.
The euro was little changed at $1.101, with the dollar index edging up to $101.750.
The Japanese yen weakened about 0.7% versus the dollar. Investors continued to digest Friday’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to lift the lid on bond yields in a step away from its ultra-easy policies.
Analysts at BofA estimate the BOJ’s bond buying added $1.3 trillion to global liquidity in the past 18 months and provided a low floor for global rates, so any sustained rise in Japanese government bond yields could ripple though other bond markets.
Japanese 10-year yields surged to a nine-year high up to 0.6% on Monday, and toward the new cap of 1.0%. That also put upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, where the 10-year was down 3.6 basis points at 3.933%.
In commodities, spot gold added 0.6% to $1,970 an ounce, but still off from its 2023 peak in May above $2,000. [GOL/]
Oil prices were set to post their biggest monthly gains in more than a year on Monday on expectations that Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten global supply. U.S. crude rose about 1% to $81.37 per barrel and Brent was at $85.45, up 0.54% on the day.
(Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston and Nell Mackenzie in London; Editing by Nick Macfie, Will Dunham and Deepa Babington)
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